Forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/USD -


  • The U.S. economy is forecast to have created 180,000 jobs in October
  • The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.8%
  • A weak NFP report would be bearish for the U.S. dollar. This could create the right conditions for a moderate rally in EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Trade Smarter – Sign up for the DailyFX Newsletter

Receive timely and compelling market commentary from the DailyFX team

Subscribe to Newsletter


Most Read: US Dollar Forecast – USD/JPY Slips but AUD/USD Breaks Out After Fed, NFP Ahead

Wall Street will be on high alert Friday morning when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its most recent employment survey. With the potential to alter the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, this report is set to draw substantial attention and scrutiny, possibly resulting in greater market volatility heading into the weekend.

Consensus forecasts suggest that U.S. employers increased payrolls by 180,000 in October, following the addition of 336,000 jobs in September. Separately, household data is expected to reveal that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, highlighting the persistent tightness in labor market conditions.

Focusing on compensation, average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% monthly, which would result in an annual reading of 4.3%. For the Federal Reserve, pay growth is a critical metric. serving as an indicator of inflationary trends. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to observe the progression of wages in the broader economy and assess their compatibility with the 2.0% inflation target.

Take your trading skills to the next level and gain a competitive edge. Download the U.S. dollar’s Q4 forecast today for exclusive insights into the pivotal catalysts that should be on every trader’s radar.

Recommended by Diego Colman

Get Your Free USD Forecast



Source: TradingView


Fed Chair Powell has maintained the possibility of additional policy tightening for the current cycle, but has not firmly embraced this scenario, pledging to proceed carefully in the face of growing uncertainties. This suggests that policymakers will rely heavily on incoming information to formulate future decisions.

Looking at implied probabilities, the odds of a quarter-point rate rise at the December Fed meeting sits at roughly 20% at the time of writing. Market pricing has been in a state of flux lately, but the likelihood of another hike could rise materially if payroll numbers beat projections by a wide margin. Any NFP headline figure above 250,000 could have this effect on expectations.

Generally speaking, a very hot employment survey could spark a hawkish repricing of the Fed’s policy path, creating the right conditions for U.S. Treasury yields to resume their ascent after their recent pullback. This scenario could give the U.S. dollar a boost against its top peers such as the euro and the British pound.

On the other hand, if hiring activity disappoints and confirms that the economic outlook is deteriorating, rates could continue their retrenchment, pushing the broader U.S. dollar lower. This scenario would be supportive of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, allowing both pairs to extend their nascent recovery. Anything below 100,000 jobs should be bearish for the U.S. dollar.

Keen to understand the role of retail positioning in EUR/USD’s price action dynamics? Our sentiment guide delivers all the essential insights. Get your free copy today!

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -23% 36% -6%
Weekly -24% 22% -10%



Source: FedWatch Tool

Discover what sets the best apart and unlock the secrets of trading consistency: download our comprehensive guide on the traits of successful traders and step up your game!

Recommended by Diego Colman

Traits of Successful Traders


EUR/USD rebounded on Thursday amid broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, but fell short of taking out overhead resistance stretching from 1.0670 to 1.0695. For confidence to improve further, we need to see a clear and clean move above 1.0670/1.0695 in the coming days. If this scenario unfolds, the bullish camp may reassert dominance, paving the way for a rally towards 1.0765, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October selloff.

On the other hand, if sellers regain the upper hand and drive prices below trendline support at 1.0535, downward momentum could intensify, opening the door for a drop toward the 1.0450. Below this region, the next area of interest is located at 1.0355.

Curious about the expected path for EUR/USD and the market catalysts that should be on your radar? Explore all the details in our Q4 euro trading guide. Download it now!

Recommended by Diego Colman

Get Your Free EUR Forecast


A screen shot of a graph  Description automatically generated

EUR/USD Chart Creating Using TradingView


The British pound has been weakening against the U.S. dollar since mid-July, with GBP/USD steered to the downside by a well-defined bearish trendline and marking impeccable higher lows and lower lows during its slide. Earlier in the week, cable made a push towards trendline resistance at 1.2200, but failed to clear it decisively, a sign that the bulls have not yet developed the necessary momentum for a breakout.

For a clearer picture of the short-term prospects for GBP/USD, it’s vital to assess how prices behave around crucial levels over the next few days, taking into account two potential scenarios.

Scenario one: Breakout

If cable manages to breach dynamic resistance at 1.2200, we could see a move towards 1.2330. On further strength, the focus shifts to the 200-day simple moving average near 1.2450.

Scenario two: Bearish rejection

If cable gets repelled lower from its current position, the pair could head toward its yearly lows at 1.2075, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022/2023 rally aligns with several swing lows. Maintaining this technical support is of utmost importance; any breach could trigger a decline towards the 1.1800 handle.

Wondering how retail positioning can shape the short-term trajectory of GBP/USD? Our sentiment guide has all the relevant information you need. Grab a free copy now!

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -6% 15% 0%
Weekly -11% 5% -6%


A screenshot of a computer screen  Description automatically generated

GBP/USD Chart Created Using TradingView

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *